Sunday, October 14, 2012
Are you tired about all the hype on polls? Regardless of who you think is favored in the race now after just two debates, one between the presidential candiates and the one between the vice-presidential candidates, most of the major polls show that the two candidates are running in almost a dead tie, unless you dig deeper and check the real facts.
Here are the facts....
1 - Usually the undecided voters will most likely vote for the challenger (Romney)
2 - Obama is more "likeable" than Romney - 60% for Obama, 31% Romney according to a USA Today/Gallup poll. More likeable candidates win election at least 70% of the time.
3 - Obama holds a significant lead among women voters over Romney. 6 out of 10 women favor Obama. A Quinnipiac University poll shows that Romney is beat by Obama amongst women voters when it comes to Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania from 6 to 19 percentage points.
4 - Minority voters prefer Obama - A Pew Research poll shows that Romney is even liked less than McCain was among Hispanics, at least 27%.
5 - Romney is believed to have better business polls according to a USA Today/Gallup poll, but only by 3 percentage points 46% to 43%.
6 - Romney is favored with handling the economy by 61% to 52% for Obama.
7 - A Rasmussen Report poll released back in May showed that the country is headed into the wrong direction.
8 - Obama and Romney show to now be in a statistical tie in the state of Ohio.
9 - Romney leads Obama in Florida, according to another Quinnipiac survey, while Obama holds a lead by some 8 points in Pennsylvania.
10 - A long standing fact is that no candidate has ever won the presidency without at least winning 2 out of the 3 states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.
Polls during the last 30 days may not change much, but it appears that the remaining two debates may have a deciding factor when it comes to the undecided voters. On a down note, some states have been trying to stop early voting and not allow others to vote even though they have qualified for dozens of years in the past. Recently, the courts have struck down the ideas in the states, but the Republicans have been successfull in distilling a scare factor in some voters which will keep them away from the polls.
With all of the poll data, what may actually happen is that the President may run away with some states that have always voted Republican. But the main states to watch are Pennsylvania, Florida and the one to really watch is Ohio. Whoever wins Ohio should win the Presidency.