Follow Barack Obama prior and during his tenure as the 44th President of the United States. Read about my personal observations along with every day facts as they happen. This blog will only submit factual information about the first black President, now in his 2nd term of office.


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Polls Are Not the Tell-All Story When it Comes to Presidential Elections

Monday, November 24, 2014

 Is it a forgone conclusion that Hilary Clinton will be the next Democratic Candidate? Most people you ask say that is the case. But who will run against her? One of the people that will most likely not run WITH her is President Obama. Hilary most likely will distance herself from the President.
One of the gauges in politics that is used most often are the polls. In a surprising poll, a Bloomberg politics/At. Anselm poll, is in favor of Hilary Clinton over President Obama - 88% to 86%, and the President cannot even run. VP. Joe Biden comes in 3rd at 72% and Senator Elizabeth Warren comes in at 61%, even though Warren claims that she definitely is not going to run for President.
In the 2016 primary, Hilary overwhelming shadows her possible opponents and she hasn't even announced that she is running yet.  Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 62% to 13%, Sen. Bernie Sanders 6%, VP. Joe Biden 5%.

  Now in the Republican Poll, Bloomberg shows Mitt Romney over Senator Rand Paul - 30% to 11%, then Governor Chris Christie at 9% and Jeb Bush at 8%. So is Mitt Romney going to pursue the White House for the third time? Most people seem to be talking again about Mitt Romney, as he could be the Republican candidate that could actually compete against Hilary Clinton to win the White House in 2016. Maybe it's just the state of New Hampshire, because Mitt Romney is very popular there.

  One thing is for sure, the Republican party is definitely in need of a nominee. Romney for allot of people is the guy who can raise money, and who has the experience of running a presidential election. Even with all this said, it's almost meaningless to speculate as it is definitely too early to make such projections. That's why I believe that poll numbers are most likely not realistic, especially in presidential elections this early in the game.
Now for those Romneyites. Do you think that Romney will get in the race one more time? He definitely is stupid enough to. He has the money to waste.  He does happen to be a clear choice for allot of people. The one deciding factor might be if Jeb Bush runs or not. If he does not run, then I think Mitt Romney will go at it one more time. The question is whether he would be willing to put up with the sure to come criticism that will be hot and heavy by his contenders this go around. Mitt's problem is that all of his contenders, both Democratic and Republican already know what he is all about, and know just about everything about him that can help him or hurt him in the election. Mitt Romney has an advantage because he's done this before.

  Now, the polls do show that if Romney did run, he would be neck in neck against Hilary Clinton, as Clinton shows that Hilary is only up by one point 46% to 45% over Romney in the general election. Without Romney in play, the general election has Gov. Chris Christie and Sen. Rand Paul running side by side in the polls at 16%, 2 points over Job Bush at 16%. Others that might run are Mike Huckabee, Rep. Paul Ryan, and Senator Ted Cruz.
The field of contenders don't seem to be that very good for Republicans. Their stance on immigration is not good either. Their stance regarding equal pay for men vs. women are not good. Their stance for raising the minimum wage and help support the middle class are not good. Republican ideas most definitely favor the rich, so the Republicans will have a difficult time running against any Democratic candidate in 2016.
Until the Republicans change their ideas concerning immigration to say the least, they will not win the Presidency. Whoever wins the Democratic nomination to run for President will win the White House this year. If Elizabeth Warren decided to run if Hilary did not, she would beat Mitt Romney hands down in the General election, regardless of what the polls say at the moment. Obviously polls are not that convincing to me.


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